Tomorrows investors are expected to forsake the old paradigm and embrace a new one. Dow 36,000 reflects on the markets incredible climb. If you study it carefully you will learn to look for information in the only spot where all pertinent information is consolidated. Read the newest argument supporting the belief that dow 36,000. Apocalyptic warnings of an imminent market crash are echoing around wall street, but according to a new book.
Dow 36,000 looks less daft but still misses the point bloomberg. Hassett proclaim a new theory of the stock market that would support a tripling of the dow from its current levels. The current runup in the dow began in september 2015, only a. We think its going to 36,000 and the reason is the theory that we lay out in the book. Mr glassman even had unfortunate timing when he wrote a wall street journal article acknowledging the book was wrong, suggesting the world was going. Does the interesting book dow 36,000 glassman and hassett, 1999 reflect overconfidence. Glassman, of course, was the author of perhaps the most spectacularly wrong investing book ever. Dow, 30, 000 by 2008 why its different this time second printing zuccaro, robert on. In explaining their new theory of stock valuation, the authors argue that in fact stock prices are much too. Hassetts reputation suffered a hit due to his coauthorship of the 1999 book dow 36,000, in which he and james k. While the book had a provocative title, its fundamental message was mainstream. Oct 18, 2017 yes, it seems a little unfair to keep bringing up dow 36,000 at this point. Hassett, in which they argued that stocks in 1999 were significantly undervalued and concluded that there would be a fourfold market increase with the dow jones industrial average djia rising to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004. The new strategy for profiting from the coming rise in the stock market is a 1999 book by syndicated columnist james k.
Piketty is wrong for the same reason dow 36,000 was wrong. According to financial theory, the yield on assets should be proportionate to. Why the dow 36,000 argument doesnt work crossing wall street. Dow 36,000 is a good book, worth reading even if you dont buy the authors entire argument.
The new strategy for profiting from the coming rise in the stock market is really very simple. Hassett present the discounted dividend model of the stock market as their reason why stock prices will soar, eventually. What was so odd about the authors choice of book title. The point of this book is to revolutionize investing. The new strategy for profiting from the coming rise in the stock market. He has also worked as a journalist, magazine publisher, and business writer, and in the field of economic policy development.
Applying the dow 36,000 discount to trumps tax cuts. The sustained boom on wall street has recently resulted in a spate of books with such titles as dow 36,000, dow 40,000 and even dow 100,000. The dow theory 3 the industrial average is made up of a broad group of 30 stocks. Mar 08, 20 glassman, of course, was the author of perhaps the most spectacularly wrong investing book ever. Kevin a hassett describes the dow s upward trend, why stocks can be less risky than bonds, and how to build a portfolio based on that knowledge. What pthe ratio of prices to earnings, a bunch of stuff like that which is a little technical, although i think wewe make it pretty simple in the book, brings us to a dow of 36,000. Why donald trump needs to read dow 36,000 financial times.
In a story that used to be told often, authors and economists james glassman and kevin hassett released their dow 36,000 book in 1999, and lets just say it didnt go so well, as the dow jones industrial average found itself at 7,400 within two years of the books ink drying. On the radical side, journalist james glassman and former federal reserve economist kevin hassett have been making headlines with a new book, dow. The new strategy for profiting from the coming rise in the stock market 1 by glassman, james k. When our book, dow 36,000, was published in september 1999, the dow jones industrial average stood at 10318. At the time, the dow jones industrail average index was just under 12,000. By their logic, they said, the dow should be at 35,000and would be, when investors caught on. Thecoauthors of dow 36,000 are james glassman, the dewittwallacereaders. Like robert loest whose ips millennium fund was folded into another fund family after it shrank in size, zuccaro was a permanent stock market bull who evidently could not see what was really happening to the market. The dow 36,000 theory is all about predicting a paradigm shift in current investors perceptions. Dow 36,000 is the result of the investigation by glassman, a former columnist for the washington post and host of the pbs show technopolitics, and hassett, a. Recently weve seen books published with the titles dow 36,000, dow 40,000. The new strategy for profiting from the coming rise in. Technical analysis of stock trends edition 11 by robert d. Research suggests that overconfidence is a trait of decisionmakers that consider themselves to be experts.
Nov 14, 2000 coauthored by social scientist kevin a. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, as the dow jones industrial average rose from below 800 to above 11,000, wall street analysts and financial journalists were warned that stocks were dangerously overvalued and that investors were caught up in an insane euphoria. Portfolios, etc imagining the dow at 36,000 the new. Hassett, the book claims stocks are actually less risky than bonds. The book, dow 36,000, which will be out in early september, explains the reasons for the stock markets rise between august 1982, when the dow jones industrial average stood at 777, and today. The new strategy for profiting from the coming rise in the stock market paperback. The latest entry in this minefield is the book dow 36,000. While this book will not by itself make you an authority on the dow theory, it should help you acquire a working knowledge. Robert shiller 2000 simply describes this matter by saying people think they know more than they do. Dow, 30, 000 by 2008 why its different this time second. Dow 36,000 looks less daft but still misses the point. The author argued that the index would triple in 5 years.
Sep 05, 1999 jonathan fuerbringer portfolios etc column on belief by kevin a hassett and james k glassman, authors of new book dow 36,000, that rise in dow jones industrials will continue speeding up. The book covers technical theory such as the dow theory. Bush institute, has an oped in todays wall street journal conceding that his 1999 book dow 36,000 was wrong. For this to take place, the dow jones, in their view, should rise to about 36,000. Dow, 30, 000 by 2008 why its different this time second printing. James glassman and kevin hassett published a book called dow 36,000. People such as burton malakeil sorry for the misspelling and paul kruger have addressed the dow 36,000 theory, and while they did not support it, they still have opened the doors to discussion. Read the newest argument supporting the belief that dow 36,000 will come in the near future. It made a lot of waves back during the heyday of the internet stocks and day trading, but unfortunately for the authors, the timing of the books release was less than ideal.
Portfolios, etc imagining the dow at 36,000 the new york. Among the adherents of the theory are richard thaler, who wrote about this equity. A separate utility average was instituted in 1929, but so far has not found a place in the dow theory. They argue in the forthcoming and provocative new bookthat the dow jones average and should be valued at 36,000 today. Dow 36,000 coauthors stand by books premise originally published november 5, 2006 at 12. Normally, economic fortunetellers arent much better than the real ones.
Dow 36,000, despite its somewhat inflammatory title, was a very sophisticated new theory for stock valuation. Much of the rest of dow 36,000, which is an enjoyable and thoughtprovoking read, is taken up with the mathematics to prove their theory especially how the growth of. Trumps likely cea pick, kevin hassett, and the prediction. This fall theyre bringing out a book titled dow 36,000.
Nothing has caused us to alter one word of our theory. Some of my correspondents think i gave glassman and hassett too easy a ride in my sunday column. Jan 28, 2002 dow 36,000 author james glassman is back with a new book, and maintains that dow 36,000 could still happen. In his book stocks for the long run 1998, jeremy j. In 1999, i coauthored a book called dow 36,000 that became, in some circles, a notorious symbol for bullishness about the stock market. I t would make a wonderful tale if these two both associated with the american enterprise institute, a conservative washington think tank. This book will liberate investors from conventional wisdom and change the way everyone thinks. Dow 36,000 in dow 36,000 september atlantic, james k. Coupled with euphoria over the coming of the internet age. Excerpts from the book were published in the atlantic monthly in 1999. Glassman, noted supplysider and executive director of the george w. The infamous book, coauthored in 1999 by kevin hassett, who took over last month as chairman of the white house. Dow 36,000 coauthors stand by books premise the seattle.
As with the transportation average, it is necessary to divide the sum of the the tools of the. This revised and updated version of the bestselling book, technical analysis of stock trends, 10th edition, presents proven long and shortterm stock trend analysis enabling investors to make smart, profitable trading decisions. Now his two mutual funds are out of business and this can join glassmans dow 36,000. Everyday low prices and free delivery on eligible orders. Glassman, coauthor of the most infamously wrong investment book of all time, 1999s dow 36,000. This week, as the dow hit 10,000, glassman and hassett repeat their argument in the journal. Sep 14, 1999 more important, we concluded that the rise will continue, at least until dow 36,000. They admit that the financial establishment has reacted with guffaws. In dow 36,000, james glassman and kevin hassett see a bright future for stocks, but. Dow 36,000 is the result of the investigation by glassman, a former columnist for the washington post and host of the pbs show technopolitics, and hassett, a former senior economist at the. Behavioral financetheory and practical application. The new strategy for profiting from the coming rise in the stock market james k. Their book of the forecast, dow 36,000 the new strategy for profiting from the coming rise in the stock market, published six months before the market peaked, became a.
As we will see, dividends and dividend growthas opposed to dividend yieldare essential to our 36,000 theory. Now that the dow jones industrial average has soared over 4,500 points since alan greenspan warned us of the markets irrational exuberance, a miniindustry has evolved of publishing books that attempt to explain the new market. Instead he just mentions that this is the dow 36,000 theory. Originally it included stocks which are today classed as utilities. The outlandish dow target owes its importance to a 1999 book s illtimed prediction. Aug 02, 20 their book of the forecast, dow 36,000 the new strategy for profiting from the coming rise in the stock market, published six months before the market peaked, became a best seller. Glassman argued that stocks were extremely undervalued and that the dow. Books classical country life cover story critics picks film performance art theater tv visual art. Nov 03, 20 why dow 36,000 could happen earlier this year, james glassman, one of the coauthors of dow 36,000, wrote an article for bloomberg explaining his theory for how the stock market could rise to.
The new strategy for profiting from the coming rise in the. The crash of the millennium is nonsense, even if such a crash does occur. In 1999, i coauthored a book called dow 36,000 that became. In theory, historical averages show that stocks are a good buy if you can. But we think its time for those who keep pointing to low dividend yields to. Jan 10, 2017 to be sure, playing on the twin emotions of fear and greed is nothing new as the latter was targeted with the infamous book dow 36,000. The new strategy for profiting from the coming rise in the stock market, by james k. Oct 20, 2017 why donald trump needs to read dow 36,000. Hassetts previous claim to fame before becoming donald trumps cheif economic advisur was writing the notatall silly book dow 36,000 back in 1999. That 1999 book by investing columnist james glassman and former fed economist kevin. Before you assume that i advocate the dow 36,000 theory let me just state. Some of you may remember the unforgettable title of the 1999 financial bestseller, dow 36000. And a little bit later in the program were going to be talking about another dow, dow 36,000, jim glassman, the author of that controversial book is going to join us.
Maybe i did, partly because the column was more about the lockup of republican economists than about what was, after all, only a book. It is one of the most important and provocative books on markets and investing written in recent years. Dow 36,000 is the result of glassman and hassetts investigation. Dow 36,000 has the longrunning bull market been a contemporary version of tulipmania. The dow theory is an approach to trading developed by charles h. In 1999, james glassman and kevin hassett created a sensation with their book dow 36,000. Hassett, the authors of the new book dow 36,000, is an unqualified yes. The dow has only recently hit 29,000, 25% short of 36,000 after 20 years. While the book had a provocative title, its fundamental. Published in october 1999, the book argued that stocks should triple in about four years. Dow 36,000 author questions his thesis the new republic. Why dow 36,000 could happen earlier this year, james glassman, one of the coauthors of dow 36,000, wrote an article for bloomberg explaining his theory for how the stock market could rise to. The book, which he wrote with kevin hassett, came out in 1999, when the dow was around 11,000. By the debate it has caused in the intellectual communities, i think it has done just that.
The proper priceearnings ratio for good growth stocks to equalize cash flow between stocks and bonds is approximately 100. Although the book became a symbol of late 1990s mania, 1 its primary messagestocks return. Published shortly before the tech bubble burst in early 2000, the book states the dow will climb to 36,000 in the next few years. You will find, after reading this book, that you can determine the right price for any stock. Quote the sustained boom on wall street has recently resulted in a spate of books with such titles as dow 36,000, dow 40,000 and even dow 100,000. Author of the spectacularly wrong dow 36,000 has new. He is perhaps best known for cowriting the book dow 36,000 published 1999, in which he predicted that the dow jones industrial average would approximately triple in value to 36,000 points by early 2005. May 18, 2015 what matters about dow 36,000 was not that conservative economists james glassman and kevin hassett believed the stock market was going to triple over the following few years, but that so. Both authors are affiliated with the think tank american enterprise institute. In theory, the dow should rise to 36,000 now, but the authors believe that it will probably take four or five years to happen. To be sure, playing on the twin emotions of fear and greed is nothing new as the latter was targeted with the infamous book dow 36,000.